2026 Recommendation Headline
Top-Line by Product (2025 vs 2026)
Tier Penetration & Allocation Depth
Surplus & Shortage by Product
Coverage Snapshot
Per-Store Detail
| Store | City | State | 12" Sold | 12" Sellout | 12" Tier | 12" Adj Demand | 12" Case-Calc | 36" Sold | 36" Sellout | 36" Tier | 36" Adj Demand | 36" Case-Calc | Tealight Sold | Tealight Sellout | Tealight Tier | Tealight Adj Demand | Tealight Case-Calc | Combo Cases | Tealight Cases | Solo Cases | 12" Units | 36" Units | Tealight Units | Solo Units | 12" Total | 12" Surplus | 36" Surplus | Tealight Surplus | 12" Shortage | 36" Shortage | Tealight Shortage |
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Methodology Comparison
Edit the Vs. Methodology panel to try alternative inputs. The Suggested column comes from the sidebar; the Vs. column is independent and only affects this tab.
Side-by-Side Totals
12"-per-Combo Pack-Size Sweep
Holds combo cases fixed at the current combo rule and varies only the 12" per combo. Toggle Combo-Only vs Combo+Solo to see how the Solo SKU absorbs 12" shortfall at different pack ratios.
US Heat Map - Average 2025 Sales per Store (by State)
Each state colored by total 2025 net sales dollars divided by the number of stores in that state. Red = lower per-store sales, green = higher per-store sales. Hover to preview, click any state to lock the detail panel on the right.
The panel locks on click so you can compare states by clicking around. Click empty ocean to clear.
By State (live)
| State | Stores | 12" Ship | 12" Sold | 12" ST | 36" Ship | 36" Sold | 36" ST | Tealight Ship | Tealight Sold | Tealight ST |
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Methodology Reference
Pack sizes: 12" Lantern 24/case in 2025, 36/case proposed for 2026. Tealights 20/case (unchanged). 36" Lantern 20/case (unchanged). Solo Lantern (hypothetical): 36/case.
Combo box composition (2026): 36 12" + 20 36". No half cases.
Combo rule: Current setting 36-DRIVEN.
Per-SKU demand = sold + bonus_cases × pack_2026.
Date-of-sellout bonus: +1 case if sold out by Oct 31, +0 cases if by Nov 30, else 0.
Per-SKU case-needs = CEIL(demand / pack_2026). Combo cases per store = rule(12 case-needs, 36 case-needs).
Tealight rule: 0 cases if sold < 8, otherwise FLOOR((sold-8)/20)+1. No floor for stores with no sales.
Methodology floors: No combo if 36" sold < 8. Solo only if 12" sold >= 20 (and no combo). 36" round-down tolerance: 10 units.
Why 36-driven is the default: the 36" Lantern carries the higher per-unit cost and the larger end-of-season markdown / write-off risk. Sizing combo cases to 36" demand caps the 36" exposure. The trade-off is per-store 12" shortfall, which is what the Solo scenario quantifies.